Obama Gains, But Can He Maintain? By Lee Bandy
SouthCarolinaInsider (4/10/07) U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., has rocketed to the top
of the field of contenders for the South Carolina Democratic presidential
primary crown, leaving the candidacy of New York Sen. Hillary Clinton
in a cloud of dust.
The news stunned political experts and pundits.
“Obama has started a brush fire across the country”
that Clinton may find difficult to quench, said Francis Marion University
polit1ical scientist Neal Thigpen.
“Obama clearly has got momentum,” said Winthrop University
professor Scott Huffmon.
The Illinois senator’s showing represents a complete turnaround
for Obama who trailed in earlier South Carolina surveys.
Today, Obama holds a comfortable lead in South Carolina, according
to a new telephone poll.
He leads with 34 percent of the Democratic primary vote, followed
by Clinton with 20 percent.
What is worrisome for the Clinton campaign is that she is in danger
of slipping into third place in South Carolina. The poll shows that
former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards is only three percentage
points away from overtaking Clinton.
Matt Towery, chief executive officer of the Atlanta-based polling
firm Insider Advantage, was somewhat surprised by the Obama showing.
“The margin of Obama’s lead in South Carolina was stronger
than I expected this early in the race,” he said.
Obama was the overwhelming choice of blacks, winning 43 percent
of the African-American community, to 28 percent for Cliinton.
That represents a sharp shift in black sentiment since both candidates
announced their candidacy. Obama was unknown at the time.
“More and more blacks are for him,” Thigpen said. “A
lot didn’t know him at the time of his announcement. That
changed as more came to hear him and know him.”
The telephone poll was taken of 500 registered Democratic voters
April 6-8.
The good news couldn’t have come at a better time for Obama.
On Friday, he will put in a campaign appearance in Florence where
he will conduct a noon community meeting on healthcare services.
That will be followed by an address that evening to the South Carolina
Legislative Black Caucus at its annual dinner in Columbia. Clinton
tried to get invited but was turned down.
Mo Elleitlee, a spokesman for the Clinton campaign, dismissed the
latest South Carolina poll numbers.
“It’s way too early in the campaign to be talking about
polls,” he said. “Polls don’t mean that much right
now.”
He then added, “We’re .looking forward to the debates.”
Huffmon cautioned the Obama folks not to get too cocky.
“Hillary has got a lot of money to help make up for the lost
ground,” he said, noting that she raised $26 million the first
quarter and that she has access to millions more.
Obama pretty much matched her dollar for dollars in that first reporting
period.
The $64,000 question is can Obama sustain the momentum he has? How
will he measure up against the competition?
The upcoming debates April 26 will be crucial. |
