Primary Picture Clear As Mud For GOP

By Lee Bandy
SouthCarolina Insider

(11/23/07) Ladies and gentlemen, we have ourselves a race in South Carolina.

In less than two months, South Carolinians go to the polls to cast ballots for the Republican candidate they’d like to see serve as the party’s presidential standard bearer for the next four years.

The primary date is set for Jan.19.

It should be a real humdinger.

A recent survey of likely GOP voters conducted Oct. 25-28 by Ayres, McHenry and Associates shows an extremely tight contest. There’s little space between the top four candidates.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney led the field with 20 percent of the primary vote. He was followed by former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani with 19 percent.

Next was U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona with 17 percent.

Former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee dropped to 13 percent.

The ratings present a muddled picture of the S.C. primary. No one candidate has jumped out and captured the imagination of South Carolina voters. There’s little, if any, excitement among Republicans about their choices. About the only thing that would unite them today would be for the Democrats to nominate U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York for president. Right now she’s the prohibitive favorite to capture her party’s nomination.

In the Ayres-McHenry poll taken of S.C. Republicans, Romney, Giuliani and McCain are in a statistical dead heat. Thompson has faded.

If there is a surprise, it’s Romney’s emergence from the shadows of last place to take the lead. He has worked the state harder than anyone else.

Proving that television ads move numbers, he has blanketed the state with a huge TV buy. He has virtually had the TV airwaves all to himself. It has boosted his name identification and given him a leg up on everyone else.

He is by far the best organized campaign in the state. McCain isn’t far behind.

For the most part, however, the Republicans have generated little excitement. Thompson, who was to be the savior for the more conservative wing of the party, has been a big disappointment. He has failed to catch fire.

Veteran political observers aren’t surprised by his poor performance to date.

“He had a bad launch,” said Francis Marion University analyst Neal Thigpen, referring toThompson’s error-ridden campaign kickoff in September.

Clemson University political scientist Bruce Ransom, said, “I’m not prepared yet to say Thompson is toast, but he’s certainly moving in that direction.”

Terry Sullivan, state campaign director for Romney and one who can’t resist jabbing opponents with a political needle, said of Thompson, “I liked him best in Law and Order.”

McCain has managed to regain some lost territory from his summer fiasco, but the effort is probably too little too late, said College of Charleston professor Bill Moore. “John McCain has become old news.”

By the time the GOP primary reaches South Carolina, some candidates may have fallen by the wayside.

One of those could be McCain. He needs to win New Hampshire. If he doesn’t, he is likely to fold his tent and head directly to his home in Arizona, bypassing South Carolina.

McCain’s biggest problem is he has become old news at age 72, Moore said. Giuliani is counting on his fame from 9/11 to boost him over the top.

Thompson might want to reconsider his decision to leave TV’s “Law and Order.”

“It’s anybody’s to win. It’s going to be a dog fight,” said state GOP Chairman Katon Dawson.