Losing Ground

By Lee Bandy
SouthCarolina Insider

(11/30/07) With her lead slipping away in South Carolina and elsewhere, Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton suddenly finds herself embroiled in a fight for her political life.

She could lose. Her once commanding lead over the field has evaporated.

Clinton last week saw a 23-point lead over Barack Obama in September fall to 14 points, according to a CNN/WMUR New Hampshire primary presidential poll. And she’s still losing ground.

That survey came out a day after another poll in Iowa found Obama, the Illinois senator, taking over first place, although his lead was within the margin of error.

The news got worse for the New York senator as the days wore on.

A new Zogby survey found that 50 percent of likely voters said they would never vote for Clinton, up from 46 percent in March.

Voters don’t like her.

If that weren’t enough, a most recent poll taken of S.C. voters by Clemson University had Clinton and Obama in a statistical dead heat.

A large number of voters remain undecided, however.

Clinton has been at the top of the Democratic pack since Day One of the 2008 presidential campaign. No one has come close to challenging her.

The most recent polls show the race for the Democratic nomination tightening five weeks before the first contest in Iowa, which kicks off the state-by-state nomination battles.

S.C. Democratic voters go to the polls on Jan. 26.

Several Democrats have expressed concern about the former first lady’s electability against Republicans next November.

Obama, who would be the first black president in U.S. history, has stirred enthusiasm among grass-roots Democratic activists. He attracts big crowds on the campaign trail.

But for some reason he hasn’t been able to break out of the pack. He has remained stuck in neutral – that is until now.

Thanks in large part to her campaign gaffes, Clinton has given her foes an opening.

Polls show her not doing all that well with independents and younger voters.

“The questions about her electability have always been there, but as we get close this suggests that is a problem,” pollster John Zogby says.

Front-runners generally can suffer one primary loss, says Emory University political scientist Merle Black.

“But two losses in a row would be difficult to survive,” he added.

Clinton is preparing for such an eventuality. She is quietly building a firewall in the “Live Free or Die” state in case she loses Iowa. She can’t afford to lose both Iowa and New Hampshire. That would be all she wrote.

The Clemson University Palmetto Poll shows S.C. Democrats are having a difficult time making up their minds. At this late hour, nearly half, or 49 percent, remain undecided.

“Voters in the state have not started paying close attention to candidate activity ahead of the primary,” observed Joseph Stewart, chairman of the Clemson political science department.

He said most voters in the state are likely to pay more attention to the candidates in January.

“It’s hard for the candidates to compete with Santa Claus,” Stewart said, citing the holiday season as a distraction to voters.

“South Carolina is up for grabs,” he said.

In the past, candidates have lost Iowa and gone on to win the nomination. Among them - Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush.

Bruce Ransom, a Clemson professor, says Clinton is losing ground in South Carolina, and “she can’t run away from that,” he said. “The question is can she stop the bleeding?

That’s a mighty tall order. Once a campaign starts unraveling, it’s virtually impossible to put it back together.

Hillary may not win.