South Carolina In A Very Important Spot

By Lee Bandy
SouthCarolina Insider

(10/1/07) The 2008 presidential primary battle may be old news by the time Super Tuesday rolls around next February.

South Carolina, in all likelihood, will have picked the “presumptive nominees” of both national parties by then.

The Palmetto State has set Jan. 19 for its Republican presidential primary and Jan. 29 for its Democratic contest.

Florida messed up the works when it announced last week that it would defy party rules and hold its primary on Jan. 29.

Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and South Carolina are the only states that both national parties allow to hold presidential contests earlier than Feb. 5.

Florida said it deserved a more prominent role in choosing presidential nominees. The state’s Democratic leaders said that holding a primary a week before Feb. 5, when roughly 25 states are to vote, would ensure that national attention is focused on Florida.

Don’t count on it. South Carolina is likely to steal Florida’s thunder and determine the nominee.

A host of states, including giants such as California, New York and Texas, are set to hold elections Feb. 5.

Both the Democratic and Republican parties in the Sunshine State are being penalized for operating outside the election rules. They will not be awarded convention delegates as a result.

Democratic presidential candidates have signed pledges not to campaign in Florida.

Florida’s decision to move its primary from March to February scrambled the carefully arranged primary schedule that both national parties had laid out for the primary to give a more diverse group of states a say in early nominating process.

Here’s how the campaign stacks up.

U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York is the leader among the Democratic candidates.

Republicans are more divided. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is leading in the early primary states, while former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and actor and former U. S. senator Fred Thompson of Tennessee are leading in late primary states.

More and more candidates want their primaries to be early. They cater to early voting states, promising them and their political leaders benefits. Those candidates who win early contests get momentum.

There’s no way South Carolina can lose its standing as a key state in the election process. It measures up alongside New Hampshire in terms of importance, meaning it can’t be ignored. It’s a must-win state.

No Republican has ever won the nomination or captured the White House without winning the S. C. contest, the first primary in Dixie.

How strong is South Carolina?

Any candidate heading into South Carolina with victories in Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire will be hard to stop, says Carol Fowler, state Democratic chair.

The state could also be called upon to sort out mixed results from earlier contests or to help a losing candidate regain his footing,

“I think we’re in a very important slot,” Fowler said. “Whether we’ll decide or pick the nominee remains to be seen.”

When someone suggested that South Carolina could be asked to settle the contest, Fowler responded, “That would not surprise me.”

Bruce Ransom, a Clemson University political scientist, stopped short of saying South Carolina will pick the nominee.

“That’s stretching it a bit,” he said.

But Ransom agreed the state would play an important role in picking the nominees.

And if Clinton rode into South Carolina with three victories under her belt?

“I would have to say the race is over,” Ransom said.

All of this could happen before votes are cast in the Super Tuesday contest on Feb. 5.

“Where we are in the process is good as being first,” Fowler said.