Matt Towery's Inside
The Numbers:
Public Opposition To Small Troop Reductions Raises Similarity To
Carter Days
By Matthew Towery
(9/13/07) An InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion survey of 1044 registered
voters nationwide shows public opinion evenly split over the opinion
provided by General David Petraeus in his report this week to Congress
on our progress in Iraq. That's the good news for President Bush,
given the many reports and commentaries that suggest the general
had a sketchy case.
Now the bad news for Bush and proponents of a 30,000-troop reduction
by next summer: By a 58 percent to 34 percent margin, Americans
say the reduction is not enough. A majority wants more troops than
that home by then.
Here's the key: By a 43 percent to 36 percent margin, poll respondents
said they'd be less likely to vote for the Republican nominee for
president if a substantial number of troops "have not been
withdrawn from Iraq by Election Day." (The other 21 percent
were undecided.)
The plot gets even thicker when the poll is broken down by party
affiliation. Nearly 20 percent of those identifying themselves as
Republicans said they'd be less likely to vote for their own party's
nominee if big troop reductions don't happen.
Among those who consider themselves independent voters -- the ones
who put recent Republican presidential candidates over the top --
12 percent said they'd be less likely to vote for the GOP ticket
without drastic troop reductions.
What does this all mean? First, it tells us that many Americans
recognize that there has been genuine progress in bringing some
degree of calm to Iraq. Given the endless drumbeat of bad stories
and commentary, that is amazing in and of itself. However, the fact
that only 49 percent of all Americans agree with the administration's
assessment is hardly cause for celebration at the White House.
The fact is, most Americans originally supported the war, later
became skeptical and now want our troops back home. It doesn't mean
they don't support the troops or the overall cause. Rather, they
have grown weary and can no longer distinguish a clear connection
between 9/11 and a continued war in Iraq. Clearly there are arguments
to support that connection, but if the public cannot make the mental
leap needed to do so, then, from a public-opinion basis, the effort
is of no value.
And cute tricks, such as having General Petraeus testify one day
before the anniversary of 9/11, have little impact on public perception.
To many Americans, the election is about Iraq, stupid.
Oddly, my polling tells me that by November of 2008 the issue will
be the same that created disaster for the Democrats and Jimmy Carter
in 1980 -- the economy. Remember James Carville's stinging slogan
for Bill Clinton: "It's the economy, stupid."
James was right, and he used the issue to create a wedge that --
once Ross Perot's third-party candidacy was tossed in -- worked
to elect Clinton.
The combination of Iraq and a threat and the economy should be
of great concern to those Republicans vying for their party's nomination.
I believe this election is much like the 1980 battle between Carter
and Reagan. A bad economy combined with a seemingly unsolvable international
crisis -- the Iranian hostage crisis for Carter -- created huge
discontent among the public.
The difference this time is that none of the GOP candidates for
president are White House incumbents, as Carter was then for the
Democrats. So there's no pressing need for the Republicans to resolve
the international crisis prior to Election Day, as Carter needed
to do.
Put another way, Bush and his general can make their small reductions
in troops in Iraq and hurt only one person -- the coming GOP nominee.
Few remember that Jimmy Carter and his staff came close to negotiating
freedom for the hostages just before the election. When the effort
failed, Carter's pollster, Pat Caddell, had to inform Carter that
the election would likely go to Reagan.
To his credit, Carter tried to resolve the Iranian issue. If Bush
and the GOP presidential field remain steadfast in this "stay
until we win" mindset, they will likely sentence the GOP to
the same fate Carter faced. Defeat.
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Matt Towery served as the chairman of former Speaker Newt Gingrich's
political organization from 1992 until Gingrich left Congress. He
is a former Georgia state representative, the author of several
books and currently heads the polling and political information
firm InsiderAdvantage. To find out more about Matthew Towery and
read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists,
visit the Creators Syndicate website at www.creators.com.
COPYRIGHT 2007 CREATORS SYNDICATE, INC.
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