Obama Tries To Derail The Clinton Express

By Lee Bandy
SouthCarolina Insider

(9/24/07) South Carolina is emerging as the “showdown” state in next year’s round of presidential primaries.

On one side, you have Republicans facing an extremely fluid situation created by Fred Thompson’s late entry into the race for the presidential nomination.

On the other side, you have Democrats talking about a stop-Clinton effort.

S. C. voters will go to the polls on Jan. 19 and try to settle it for the GOP as they have done the last 28 years.

U.S. Sen. Joe Biden, a Delaware Democrat who is running for the White House job, says whoever wins the S. C. primary will be the next president.

No Republican has ever won the nomination or the White House without winning South Carolina – the first-in-the South primary. It is known as the “gateway” to Dixie.

Unlike the Republicans, the Democrats have a clear front runner in U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York.

The question is who in the party, if any, will step forward to try to stop her? She holds a double digit lead over her nearest rival – U.S. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois

Of the Democratic candidates, Obama seems best suited to challenge her.

Leaving nothing to chance, the Clinton campaign is keeping a close eye on developments in the early voting states.

In South Carolina, Obama has put together a high tech grass-roots get-out-the vote campaign unmatched by anything seen in the state. Obama is organized in all 46 counties. Much goes on outside of the public eye, or as campaign organizers are fond of saying, below the radar.

The Democratic primary is set for Jan, 29.

Obama’s campaign is encouraged by a new Winthrop/ETV Poll, showing Obama narrowly leading Clinton among all black voters who say they will vote.

The S. C. Democratic primary will be the first in which a sizeable number of African-Americans, a large hunk of the party’s political base, will be participating. About half of all votes cast in the S. C. Democratic primary are expected to come from the black community.

Among all black people surveyed, Obama enjoyed the support of 35 percent, Clinton 31 percent, and former U.S. Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina 3 percent.

Much to the chagrin of the Clinton campaign, Obama has been gaining ground in the S. C. black community as more African-Americans become acquainted with the Illinois senator.

Scott Huffmon, a Winthrop University political scientist who helped design the poll, said as black South Carolinians have come to know Obama, his support in the black community has increased significantly.

The venue for any stop-Clinton effort is likely to surface in South Carolina, the last stop before the candidates move on to the next round of contests.

It would present Obama with his last opportunity to derail the Clinton express, especially if she survives the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary. The South Carolina contest would give Obama one last chance.

“The presidential candidates need to win here if they hope to have momentum heading into the next round of primaries,” said Carol Khare Fowler, chair of the S. C. Democratic Party.

Hillary Clinton enjoys support among black voters primarily because of the Clinton legacy established by the senator’s husband, former President Bill Clinton.

Expect to see Bill Clinton a lot in South Carolina the next few months. He’s the senator’s trump card.

In the wide open Republican contest, things have become less clear.

Thompson is viewed as the most politically conservative candidate; former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is seen as the most electable; and former Massachusetts Gov Mitt Romney is relying on a superb organization, especially in the early voting states, to carry him across the finish line.

Republicans are counting on South Carolina to sort it out for them as they have done in years past.