Will Thompson Take Off Or Crash And Burn?

By Lee Bandy
SouthCarolina Insider

(9/7/07) Fred Thompson may have waited too long to enter the Republican fray for president, political experts and party officials say.

The ideal time for kicking off his campaign, they suggested, would have been this summer when the political community was abuzz with speculation about the six-foot, six-inch Tennessean.

Will he run?

One day he sounded like a candidate chomping at the bit to seek the presidency. Then the next day he wasn’t sure.

Hardcore conservatives, who felt they did not have a dog in the 2008 presidential contest, were holding out for Thompson who had represented Tennessee in the U.S. Senate f or 12 years.

But Thompson struggled. He was getting conflicting advice from some of his closest friends. It created tensions in the campaign, causing some to call it quits.

The indecisiveness cost him.

“He lost a lot of momentum. He just fiddled around. I think he lost considerable altitude,” said Francis Marion University political scientist Neal Thigpen, a Republican activist.

The announcement conservative Republicans had hoped for last spring finally came Wednesday night during NBC’s “Tonight Show with Jay Leno.”

“It is the longest non-opening act in history,” quipped Emory University analyst Merle Black.

Thompson enters the race late and with sky-high expectations. There’s little margin for error.

Most national polls of Republican voters put Thompson in second place behind frontrunner former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani but ahead of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona.

Thus far, the GOP contest for the presidency has been lackluster. For some a big
yawner. It remains to be seen whether Thompson can bring life and spark to the race.

He has about 30 days to prove himself as a worthy candidate.

Judging by his performance this summer, one wonders whether Thompson measures up.

His summer was a disaster complete with unflattering headlines. There were published reports about a campaign in disarray before it was even an official campaign. His fund-raising was lackluster.

There’s another concern – his renowned lack of enthusiasm for work, including campaigning.

Roll Call columnist Stu Rothenberg says Thompson blew his best chance by not getting into the race in the spring or summer.

Thompson has looked indecisive and weak,” Rothenberg wrote in a recent column. “He has lost potential supporters and contributions to other campaigns. And he has limited the strategic options of his campaign.”

Thompson clearly lost steam for his candidacy over the summer.

The question is can he regain any of that lost momentum.

After a summer of staff upheavals, mixed reviews for his speeches and fund-raising that had not met his expectations, Thompson says he’s ready to go.

For the next 30 days, the entire political world will be watching intently. During that time, he must demonstrate ability to organize, raise money, and create a solid positive image, said College of Charleston professor Bill Moore.

Thompson is rewriting the textbook on how to run for president, says Dave Woodard, a Clemson University professor and GOP consultant.

Thompson is a wild card.

University of South Carolina political scientist Robert Botsch of Aiken predicts Thompson’s candidacy will “shake things up.”

He certainly will make it interesting, said state GOP Chairman Katon Dawson

Republican U.S. Rep. Gresham Barrett of Westminster, ways Thompson will “bring freshness, honesty and realism to the race”

And one of the best things Barrett likes about Thompson – which could b e the candidate’s undoing - is his tendency to stray from his script

“I like it that he is unscripted,” the congressman said.

The next 30 days will be absolutely critical for Thompson. Expectations are set high. He will have to live ujp to them, says Wintrhop Universty professor Scott Huffmon.

If he starts sliding, he could very well be in trouble, says Bill Moore of the College of Charleston.

“His candidacy is either going to take off like a rocket or come crashing back to earth,” Woodard said.

Which one will it be?

The answer should be known in about 30 days.