Matt Towery's Inside
The Numbers:
It Isn't About Gender Any More
By Matthew Towery
(3/20/08)As a pollster, I truly don't care who wins the presidency.
I can't allow myself to do that. This makes my former Republican
colleagues angry and Democrats suspicious.
What I offer is analytical opinions, and I'll offer one on Barack
Obama and his pastor.
First, an admission on my part. I have never spent time with Sen.
Obama, or spoken with him by phone, unlike the other two major presidential
candidates. This has simply been a matter of scheduling and availability.
And it's too bad, because he seems to be a thoroughly likeable man.
To me, Obama isn't the "angry black man" who secretly
desires to "get the white man." I know of people who think
otherwise. They aren't racists. They've simply heard or heard about
the controversial comments from his pastor and find it hard to believe
that Obama isn't just skillfully dancing away from Jeremiah Wright
without truly distancing himself from the man.
Let me assure you that when you are in politics, you may be sitting
in the church pew, but usually your mind is racing in 20 other directions.
You hear what your minister says, but you hardly have time or the
desire to go correcting him or her, regardless of how outrageous
the comments.
So I understand what Obama is saying when he suggests that he disapproves
of the comments made by the Rev. Wright, but can't abandon him as
his pastor.
On the flip side, just as those who accept Obama's words at face
value understand what they mean, the reaction to Obama's pastor's
comments by many Americans cannot be termed as "racist."
Surely even his most ardent supporters must wonder why the Obama
family chose to attend a church where racist comments and attacks
on America's leadership occurred, even if on an irregular basis.
I don't doubt their answer, but it doesn't keep some from wondering.
I have no idea whether Obama's speech of this past week, which
was hailed by some as the greatest speech on race relations since
MLK's "I Have A Dream" speech of the early 1960s, helped
or hurt the Obama campaign.
We will poll America's reactions to the speech, but I won't be
totally persuaded by the results. I'm convinced that when it comes
down to issues as touchy as race, respondents of all ethnic and
racial demographics don't necessarily tell the truth.
My take is that neither those who have told me in recent days,
"He's cooked now," nor others who have proclaimed, "This
has elevated him to a new level and will make him president,"
have any real way of knowing the political consequences of all this.
But there is one thing I can say definitively: Anyone who believes
that race, for better or worse, doesn't matter in this election
is either a liar or a fool. I've looked at far too many of our polls
that have shown that African-American voters are all but completely
united in support for Obama. If anything, that support has solidified
recently.
That's understandable, of course. This is a time that most black
voters never dreamed would take place. Did anyone with half a brain
think that they would not embrace Obama's success?
So there. I've said everything that everyone who hates the Obama
candidacy and despises his pastor's philosophy did not want to hear.
But here's the real question: How will white voters react if Obama
is the Democratic nominee? He has won much of the Democratic white
vote in many states. But many of those states vote Republican in
the general election.
Ultimately, I have no idea whether white voters will see African-American
voters going for a black candidate in an almost wholesale manner
in the nomination process, and still accept the argument that race
should not play a role in whites' own decisions on whom to vote
for.
Truthfully, it probably would have enhanced Obama's chances to
win in November if he had received less of the black vote in the
Democratic primaries. Then it would have been easier for him to
argue that race didn't matter then, and won't ever.
But no matter how hard everyone tries to hide it, race has become
an issue in the 2008 campaign. What role it ends up playing is anyone's
guess.
And I thought it would all be about gender!
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Matt Towery served as the chairman of former Speaker Newt Gingrich's
political organization from 1992 until Gingrich left Congress. He
is a former Georgia state representative, the author of several
books and currently heads the polling and political information
firm InsiderAdvantage. To find out more about Matthew Towery and
read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists,
visit the Creators Syndicate website at www.creators.com.
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