South Carolina's Superdelegates On The Hot Seat

By Lee Bandy
SouthCarolina Insider

(5/3/08) One thing we know for certain.
When the Democratic presidential primary campaign season comes to a screeching halt in June, neither New York Sen. Hillary Clinton nor Illinois Sen. Barack Obama will have a sufficient number of pledged delegates to claim the presidential nomination.

They will need to take their case to the “super delegates,” who hold the balance of power in this election.

That puts four of South Carolina’s eight super delegates on the political hot seat. They remain uncommitted.

They include U.S. Reps. Jim Clyburn of Columbia and John Spratt of York. Others are state Rep. Gilda Cobb-Hunter of Orangeburg, state Democratic Party Vice Chair Wilber Jeffcoat of Lexington. Already, they’re being wined and dined by the Clinton and Obama campaigns.

Clyburn and Spratt would be considered prize catches.

Clyburn is the House Democratic Whip, making him the highest elected black official in Congress.

Spratt is also on the House leadership in addition to being chairman of the prestigious House Budget Committee.

Clinton’s political strength rests principally upon two factors – Electoral College assets and knowledge of issues, maintains Regent University political scientist Charles Dunn.

“In competing againt Obama , she has beaten him in head-to-head contests in the states with the largest number off Electoral College votes,” Dunn pointed out, “and she has demonstrated excellent knowledge of the issues.”

The 11 most populous states hold 271 Electoral College votes, one more than necessary to win.

In head-to-head contests in theses states, Clinton has beaten Obama in all but Illinois, the senator’s home state.

These states have much in common. They have competitive two-party systems, large minority populations, significant industrial complexes, big labor unions, sizeable suburan areas, and large cities and small towns – all of which are tailored made for Clinton.

And that was reflected in the most recent Pennsylvania debate in which Clinton appeared more comfortable discussing issues than Obama.

Barring a miracle, Clinton will end the race for delegates behind Obama, so she must mount an intensive and largely behind-the-scenes lobbying campaign to woo super delegates, Dunn said.

Her case will succeed only if she can persuade the delegates that compared to Obama her potential superior Electoral College strength and better debating skill will enable her to beat Republican John McCain.

Obama’s political strength rests principally on four factors, Dunn says. They are breadth of support, lower negative ratings, fund-raising appeal and stump-speaking ability.

special significance is Obama’s appeal to a large number of new voters, especially young people.

By encouraging so many people to get involved in American politics, he has had a great contribution to Ameican democracy.

How can the super delegates turn down either Obama or Clinton?

“They appear to be in a lose-lose situation,” said Dunn, a nationally recognized scholar on presidential politics.

“If they decide for Clinton, they will alienate black Americans, and many new voters. But if they decide for Obama, they will alienate female voters”

Democrats need a modern miracle to keep their party from splitting apart.

In 1960, Democrats had such a miracle after the blood letting between John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson. It treatened to destroy what some said was a shaky truce.

The way things are going this year, the Democrats may need an even greater miracle.